+56.73% in Bitcoin with Cindicator’s SuperForecasters signals
Over the past five weeks, Cindiator’s superforecasters, the best from among 140,000+ analysts, shared weekly signals for BTC/USD. The top performer generated +13.18% for the period, taking his cumulative P&L since January 2019 to 56.73% in BTC.
In this post, we’re exploring how superforecasters performed and what’s next.
Who are Cindicator’s superforecasters?
It’s not just signals – this is the result of over five years of experiments with hedge funds and exchanges, as we discussed in detail in the previous post that launched SuperForecasters Alpha.
Superforecasters are the crème de la crème of over 140,000 people who’ve signed up to make forecasts in the Cindiator app. They all have long-term track records of making accurate and profitable forecasts for cryptocurrency prices.
For every superforecaster, the Cindicator team examined the P&L (as if we created a trade based on each weekly forecast) and Sharpe ratios and identified the analysts with consistently positive performances. From January 2019 to May 2020, they showed historic P&Ls for BTC/USDT of up to +63.6%.
New and talented analysts can join the long list of candidates by regularly and accurately forecasting in the Cindicator app (iOS, Android, or web), which is free and open to all – only the results matter.
The competition is intense and this is what leads to high performance.
SuperForecasters Alpha performance
Every Sunday, the superforecasters share their views on the minimum and the maximum price BTC/USD would reach during the week ahead.
Signals for long and short positions are created based on this information:
- Entry price – the week’s minimum price for the long position, the maximum for the short trade;
- Stop loss – when to sell if the price goes the other way based on a 1-to-2 risk/reward ratio;
- Take profit – based on the superforecaster’s expected range for the week.
One simple strategy is to just take one superforecaster for the week and go long and/or short at the respective entry prices, then close at the stop loss or take profit point. Here is an example.
The resulting performance of the top 10 superforecasters for six weeks (18 May to 28 June):
- Highest return: +13.18% (Graokruts)
- Lowest return: +5.33% (Trecs)
- Average return across the top 10 superforecasters: +9.19%.
During the same period, Bitcoin actually lost -5.8% in USD terms. So active weekly trading with superforecasters beats passive hodling.
Most impressively, this was done during a period of great uncertainty. The markets crashed with coronavirus. Bitcoin went through its highly anticipated halving without much movement. The price reached 10k several times and met resistance. Opinions varied greatly and it was easy to get confused and stay on the fence.
Understanding the market
SuperForecasters Alpha goes beyond just numbers.
In addition to weekly signals, superforecasters also share their market views for the week, explaining what will happen first, how the events will unfold and why.
These insights help traders to understand the range for buying and selling and to keep up to date with the market.
Here is what some users said:
“Sentiment, market overview, what they foresee and how they evaluate the market... Not only do I learn by reading and looking at the charts but also by putting their words into charts and forecasts.”
“I can also think for myself instead of just relying on their calls. I can think and say, okay, this makes sense and I agree.”
With support from the best analysts, you can forget about doubts and second-guessing. You’ll know when to buy and sell Bitcoin every week.
How to get SuperForecasters signals
Some signals and insights will continue to be available in the open SuperForecasters Telegram channel. It’s a way to learn more and see if it’s something you can use.
The complete set of SuperForecasters signals and insights is available via a paid monthly subscription. This makes it easier for new people to try Cindicator’s products without building a CND holding first.
The full subscription can be paid either in crypto or via card to ensure that as many people as possible can access SuperForecasters Alpha. Sadly, crypto payment gateways are still underdeveloped and taxes and regulations are unclear, so many people (even those who hold crypto) are more comfortable paying by card. And some hodlers actually prefer to spend depreciating/inflating fiat, not crypto.
Best terms for holders of CND tokens
The CND token remains the cornerstone of the Cindicator ecosystem. Holding CND unlocks dozens of indicators for crypto, equities, futures, and more.
Holders of at CND get a discount of up 20%:
- Trader (200k cnd) = 10%
- Expert (700k cnd) = 20%
If you qualify, send an email to email@example.com with the subject “SuperForecasters CND discount” and you’ll receive an invoice with the discount.
This is only the first step towards making the CND ecosystem both welcoming to newcomers and rewarding for the long-term holders and supporters.
Soon, a new, fair and balanced holders’ privileges system will be announced. It will introduce dynamic discounts, rewarding holders based on:
- How many CND tokens you hold;
- How long the CND tokens have been held;
- Other valuable actions and factors for the CND ecosystem.
Developing a programme like this takes time, so if you have any ideas, please share them with firstname.lastname@example.org.
Subscribe to SuperForecasters
A monthly subscription to SuperForecasters is now available for just $99 and includes:
- Weekly long and short trade signals from the top 10 analysts, with entry, stop loss and take profit targets;
- Access to a private community of traders to discuss ideas and strategies or to just talk (trading can be lonely);
- Insights and market views from top analysts to cut through the noise and stay on top of the market.
With up to 20% off if you hold CND.