SuperForecasters: +72% since May in any market

SuperForecasters: +72% since May in any market

Last May, Cindicator launched SuperForecasters, a new product that delivers weekly Bitcoin signals from the top-10 analysts with the highest P&L. Compared to Stoic and Macro Sentiment Indicators it’s a less known product that was somewhat forgotten. Yet its early users have had a great ride so far: one of the strategies made +72%, performing well in bearish, sideways, and bullish trends. It could be used to generate USD returns or grow your Bitcoin stack and it does not depend on the market cycle.

Who are SuperForecasters?

From over 163,000 people who’ve signed up in the Cindicator app, the top 0.02% analysts with significant forecasting track records join the long list of prospective SuperForecasters.

For every prospective SuperForecaster, the Cindicator team examines the front-tested P&L (as if we made a trade with each weekly forecast) and invites the top-10 with the best performance. Since January 2019, SuperForecaters’ individual long-term P&Ls are between +48% and 91%.

And they don’t just provide raw numbers. Most SuperForecasters also share weekly comments that help to understand their market views and the underlying reasoning. Together, the weekly signals and market comments should help you build your own strategy.

The simple strategy: drop the extremes

There are many ways to use SuperForecasters’ signals.

As an example, Mike Brusov, co-founder and CEO of Cindicator, uses a simple strategy (he has shared this trading strategy in July). This strategy is deceptively simple yet rooted in his years of experiments with collective intelligence and superforcasting.

Mike's SuperForecasters strategy since May 2020

Here is how this strategy works.

  • Look at all the top-10 signals;
  • Take the second-highest value in long entries as the entry for the long;
  • Take the second lowest value in short entries as the entry for the short;
  • For the stop-loss and take-profit levels, calculate the difference between long and short entries for each SuperForeacster and take the simple average for these differences.
  • Divide this value by 2 to find a distance for the take-profit level; divide this value by 4 for the stop-loss. This allows you to maintain 1:2 risk/reward ratio.
  • If the trade is not closed before the new indicators are out, close it (i.e. at 00:00 am UTC);
  • Open only one trade a week — either short or long, depending on what level is broken first.

The results

Since May, this strategy generated a return of +72%. Importantly, this strategy works consistently in any market environment: check out Cindicator’s TradingView for exact entry, stop-loss, and take-profit targets for each week.

Of course, over the past few months, Bitcoin has shown impressive performance, so a passive holding did better than almost any active strategy.

Yet such strong growth cannot be sustained forever and a correction will inevitably (and unpredictably) follow this euphoric period.

The data accumulated so far gives confidence that SuperForecasters signals will help to generate alpha in any part of the market cycle.

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