Will Trump win? Here’s what crypto analysts predict
In the run-up to US presidential election, Cindicator is doing a daily poll of 156,000+ analysts registered on its platform, enhancing their forecasts with AI.
How Cindicator’s poll is done
Every day, Cindicator posts a question to all 156,000+ analysts registered on its Collective Intelligence platform. All of these people are active users of cryptocurrencies and receive monthly crypto rewards for their forecasts.
Analysts answer the question, giving a number of 0-50% if they think Trump will win and 51-100% if they expect Biden’s victory.
The chart below shows the results that are updated daily.
What does AI predict?
As a second step, Cindicator’s AI model process raw forecasts to arrive at a probability indicator, taking into account analysts’ past track record and other factors.
The AI or more precisely ‘Hybrid Intelligence’ (collective intelligence + AI) currently estimates the likelihood of each candidate's victory.
Impact on the markets: VIX
Shifts in expectations regarding the US elections have a major impact on the markets.
The most direct influence is via VIX, the CBOE Volatility index for the S&P 500 also known simply as “fear index”.
To quantify this impact of the election, Cindicator also asks a daily question about VIX:
“Will CBOE Volatility index increase today?”
Live daily VIX indicators are available to all subscribers to a free trial of Cindicator’s sentiment indicators.
Nodari Kolmakhidze, Product Owner at Cindicator, says:
“Crowdsourced forecasting consistently outperformed traditional polls in which people often don’t feel comfortable sharing their true preferences and expectations. At Cindicator forecasting is fully anonymous. We further increased the long-term accuracy of predictions to over 70% by applying AI models. The uncertainty in the world right now is higher than ever and we want to give everybody a tool to make better decisions in trading and investing.”
Cindicator is a fintech company that has been developing its Hybrid Intelligence platform since 2015. In 2017, Cindicator completed a $15 million sale of CND tokens. Since then Cindicator has collected 15 million forecasts, sending 5,000+ indicators to 6,500+ customers who hold CND tokens. In 2019 the quantitative crypto hedge fund Cindicator Capital was launched.
In 2020, Cindicator launched two new subscription-based analytical products: Macro Sentiment indicators for the stock market and SuperForecasters signals for Bitcoin. In September, Cindicator also launched Stoic, automated crypto trading service with a hedge fund edge.